In the high-end meta environment of Skyweaver, mono-prism decks are not commonly seen. As each prism has its own set of cards with varying strengths, dual-prism decks appear to allow players to include more powerful cards in their deck (since they can now choose from two prisms) while the card options are more limited in mono-prism. But, is mono-prism really inferior to dual-prism?

As a personal challenge, I have been exclusively using mono-prism decks in the last two seasons and have successfully climbed to the highest rank on the ladder: Grandweaver. In the current season, I have been using a Bouran deck with about 75% win rate and in the last season, I have used Ada which even gave me an astounding 100% win rate. These numbers are better than those of my most frequently used dual-prism deck, Titus Aggro. Through this opportunity, I would like to delve deeper into the topic of mono-prism.

To examine the efficiency of a deck building, understanding hypergeometric distribution and Bernoulli trials is crucial. These mathematical concepts can be used to calculate the probability of obtaining key cards at the start of the game, which is one of the main differences between mono-prism and dual-prism decks: in mono-prism decks, we only need to use 25 cards, while in dual-prism decks we need to use 30, which leads to a difference in the probability of finding the cards we want to keep in our starting hand at the beginning of the game.

The quality of the starting hand can have a significant impact on the outcome of the game, two of which are easier to understand: First one being better Tempo, getting a high-quality combination of creatures in the starting hand with a reasonable mana curve means that you will be able to control the game better in the early stages; The other is the better control of inevitability, having ramp cards (such as {{Gift of Aya}} or {{Eldritch Lore}} used for targeted tutoring) and good removal spells in the starting hand will allow you to operate your maximum mana and resources more efficiently while keeping your hero healthy, thus speeds up the process of entering the later stages of the game, where your control decks are generally stronger and can constantly develop bigger threats.

Because the meta changes constantly with game patches, the importance of the starting hand does not always remain the same. In the final stages of the current Clash of Inventors environment, we have seen a very sharp meta, where fast aggro decks are almost optimized to the extreme, combo decks are using all kinds of means to cheat out a high-quality unit as early as possible to reverse the tempo to their side, and control decks often sacrifice a certain proportion of late-game win rate to ensure they can handle the extremely fierce scenarios of faster decks. That being said, this has strengthened the importance of the starting hand to a certain extent, and the advantages of mono-prism decks in terms of expected value also seem worth re-examining.

After being buffed by recent patches, {{Shogun}} is an extremely powerful force in the Strength prism, when combined with any 1-cost unit with the Guard trait, it can achieve a satisfactory board presence in the very first round of the game. In the starting hand of a mono-prism deck, the probability of drawing Shogun is about 32%, while in a dual-prism deck, it is about 26.7%. The spell {{On the Hunt}}, also belonging to the Strength prism, can also be used to search for Shogun. If we consider the probability of drawing at least one of them, the difference between the mono-prism and dual-prism becomes even more obvious: the probability of drawing On the Hunt or Shogun in the dual-prism deck increases to 46.9%, while in the mono-prism deck it is an astounding 54.7%.

Although adding a second prism to the Strength prism may open up other synergies (such as {{Niko}}, a guaranteed Guard unit in the starting hand in the Wisdom prism, and {{Saber}}, an excellent 1-cost Guard unit in the Agility prism, etc.), when the main plan for the early game revolves around a few key cards and these key cards all belong to the same prism, using a mono-prism deck can indeed increase the probability of these cards working together.

Let’s examine how the hypergeometric distribution works from another prism’s perspective, the spell {{Boon of Nettles}} from Heart prism is a strong “operative” card, having units with armor or a certain removal capability (such as {{Pyrecrafter}}, {{Gus}}, or even {{Scarabot}} which has both) in the starting hand, playing Boon of Nettles on a full hand of units is a good move for the first turn.

In the Bouran deck I used in this season, the proportion of spells is relatively simple, consisting of only 5 spells and 20 units. This means that when we see Boon of Nettles in our starting hand, the probability of having four units in our hand after the drawing phase in the first turn is as high as 80.9%. In other dual prism zoo decks that mix with Heart prism, the more common ratio is 21 units plus 9 spells. This is because using dual prism often involves choosing powerful individual cards from the second prism, and these cards often see equal in numbers of units and spells. This means that the probability of successfully executing the same strategy is only 68.2%. It is true that compared to the example of Shogun, the power level and necessity of Boon of Nettles is significantly lower, but in this example we can see another different way of calculating which deduces to the conclusion that is favorable to mono prism.

Of course, mono prism does have its drawbacks. As we know, {{Buster, Squire}} is a huge threat in the current meta, and there are fewer cards in Heart prism that can respond to the first-turn Buster, Squire play. If we choose a Horik who mixes Strength and Heart prism, we will have more access to options that can deal with Buster, Squire (such as {{Strike Down}} or {{Earth Spike}}). If the proportion of players who make a first-turn Buster, Squire play is so high that it is impossible to ignore, we may need to pay attention to the impact of these interactions on the expected win rate and make adjustments accordingly, or even give up the mono prism deck entirely.

The new Hexbound Invasion expansion is coming soon, it will not only bring impact to the existing meta, but also introduce more new cards that have positive interactions within its own prism category, thus opening up more possibilities for deck building. I hope this article can spark some ideas and bring more interesting deck combinations and matchups in the epic battle of Zomboids and Armis.